To be notified of new postings, e-mail me. We also have a paid subscription blog for families interested in more detailed analysis of China's program. Due to the sensitive nature of these articles, they are available by subscription only. (http://www.research-china.org/blogs/index.htm)
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Are There Issues with China's SN Program?
If there is one question I receive from adoptive parents more than any others, it is this: "Do you think that orphanages have incentive programs to recruit SN children as well as healthy?" While the history of China's non-special needs program is filled with episodes of impropriety (baby-buying, Family Planning confiscations, etc.), there is much less data on the special-needs program. Thus, for the most part, we are left with assumptions.
But there are some indicators. In this essay on our subscription blog (available for only a one-time $20 fee) we recount our experiences with the Changde, Hunan orphanage, and an interview with the birth mother of a SN child, both of which are data points we can use to access the integrity of China's SN program.
Monday, November 30, 2015
When to Search for Birth Families
I posted an essay called "10 Commandments of Birth Parent Searching" on our subscription blog this morning, which includes some important things to consider before beginning a search. One "commandment" in particular I would like to spend some public time discussing, because I see it as of utmost importance to children in the Chinese adoption community. The commandment is simple:
Start Now, Not Later
It is commonly asserted by some in the adoption community that searching for birth parents is the prerogative of the adoptee, and that any effort to gather information or search for birth relatives should only be done after permission is given by the child. I believe that this is seriously wrong headed, and poses serious risk to the adoptive parents and their child. This idea comes, I believe, from a misunderstanding of when information needs to be communicated to a child once found.
Many assume that as soon as a birth parent were to be located, that this important event would need to be told to the child. Most adoptive parents correctly realize that knowing one's birth parents is something that a child should decide whether they are interested in or not. I strongly believe it is up to the child how they formulate their identity -- who is part of that identity, when they are learned about, etc. No adoptive parent should ever force the discovery of such an important piece of a child's identity upon them without their desiring it and permitting it. Our children have the right to control that information.
But that does not mean that adoptive parents must wait to begin the process to learn that information until their child expresses interest in it. China is a rapidly changing country. Orphanages move, nannies, foster families, finders, directors and others can move or die. Hospital records can be moved, lost, burned, etc. The fact is that the possibility that you will be able to locate your child's birth parents is like a piece of uranium -- the information is decaying as time goes on. Waiting ten or twenty years will greatly decrease the chances that you will be successful.
It really all boils down to risk mitigation. As adoptive parents we don't know whether our child will want to seek out their birth family tomorrow, next year or in 15 years. Children change their minds as they age, enter adulthood, or have any of a thousand experiences that may cause them to question their origins. As adoptive parents, we can either anticipate that these questions will come at some point in the future, or wait for them to come and be unprepared. Which outcome is more serious:
1) Search for a birth family before a child desires it, and never be asked for it.
2) Don't search until a child desires it, and then have it be too late when it is asked for.
As a parent whose goal is to provide my child every opportunity to be happy and whole, I look upon the second outcome as a catastrophic failure for the child -- having a hunger and need that can never be filled -- and the first outcome as a result with little long-term consequence. In other words, I would much prefer that my daughter never asks for the information I have already obtained about her birth family (to have wasted my efforts), then to have her one day weep when she learns that I waited and missed opportunities to learn her birth parents' identities because I didn't act when the information was still available.
Some adoptive families, quite honestly, avoid searching because they are afraid that their child's perception of them as parents will change if the birth family is found. They have an idea that their child's life began on "Gotcha day", and that the love they give their child will suffice, will fill the need their child may have for birth family. But the reality is that the need to know birth family develops outside of family -- it resides inside a child. A parent can't predict if a child will want to have this knowledge down the road. Not searching out of fear is unfair to one's child.
So, what is the best approach? Quite simply -- search and archive. Get as much information as you can, put it away, and wait for your child to ask for it. This reduces the risk of waiting, while also allowing and empowering your child with the ability to control what s/he knows. It leaves the ball firmly in the adoptive child's court to decide when they seek the information, but eliminates the risk that when they do want it, that time will have erased all trails and doomed their search to failure.
If a birth family is located, in almost all circumstances communication is controlled by the adoptive family. We have located scores of birth families, and the reaction of the adoptive families have ranged from flying to China to meet them on one end, to sending anonymous letters periodically to the birth family with the understanding that more indepth communication will have to wait until the child seek it on the other. It is the right of the adoptive parents to control and manage that communication. But to avoid seeking, to avoid communicating and establishing at least initial contact with the birth family of your child prevents the birth family from knowing their child is safe and healthy, and increases the very real risk that one day one or both of them will no longer be available when your child desires contact.
Aside from actively searching in China, another essential step is the submission of a child's DNA to 23andMe. As more and more adoptive families submit their children's DNA to this data base, important clues as to your child's origins will become available. Additionally, as birth parent DNA is entered into the data base, matches will be made that will make a search in China unnecessary. One of the first things all adoptive families should take advantage of is the collective information available through DNA.
As adoptive parents, all of us have one goal in mind -- to provide the resources and knowledge necessary to allow our children to grow up happy and whole. For some adoptees, the experiences and love of their adoptive parents and family will be enough to accomplish that. For many more, at some point questions and needs will arise that we as parents won't be able to answer or satisfy. Our job is to prepare for those questions, to do everything we can to have knowledge to provide to complete our children. The "wait until my child asks for it" mentality, especially as it relates to the situation in China, is ultimately a risky gambit that very likely will result in unhappiness for our children.
Start Now, Not Later
It is commonly asserted by some in the adoption community that searching for birth parents is the prerogative of the adoptee, and that any effort to gather information or search for birth relatives should only be done after permission is given by the child. I believe that this is seriously wrong headed, and poses serious risk to the adoptive parents and their child. This idea comes, I believe, from a misunderstanding of when information needs to be communicated to a child once found.
Many assume that as soon as a birth parent were to be located, that this important event would need to be told to the child. Most adoptive parents correctly realize that knowing one's birth parents is something that a child should decide whether they are interested in or not. I strongly believe it is up to the child how they formulate their identity -- who is part of that identity, when they are learned about, etc. No adoptive parent should ever force the discovery of such an important piece of a child's identity upon them without their desiring it and permitting it. Our children have the right to control that information.
But that does not mean that adoptive parents must wait to begin the process to learn that information until their child expresses interest in it. China is a rapidly changing country. Orphanages move, nannies, foster families, finders, directors and others can move or die. Hospital records can be moved, lost, burned, etc. The fact is that the possibility that you will be able to locate your child's birth parents is like a piece of uranium -- the information is decaying as time goes on. Waiting ten or twenty years will greatly decrease the chances that you will be successful.
It really all boils down to risk mitigation. As adoptive parents we don't know whether our child will want to seek out their birth family tomorrow, next year or in 15 years. Children change their minds as they age, enter adulthood, or have any of a thousand experiences that may cause them to question their origins. As adoptive parents, we can either anticipate that these questions will come at some point in the future, or wait for them to come and be unprepared. Which outcome is more serious:
1) Search for a birth family before a child desires it, and never be asked for it.
2) Don't search until a child desires it, and then have it be too late when it is asked for.
As a parent whose goal is to provide my child every opportunity to be happy and whole, I look upon the second outcome as a catastrophic failure for the child -- having a hunger and need that can never be filled -- and the first outcome as a result with little long-term consequence. In other words, I would much prefer that my daughter never asks for the information I have already obtained about her birth family (to have wasted my efforts), then to have her one day weep when she learns that I waited and missed opportunities to learn her birth parents' identities because I didn't act when the information was still available.
Some adoptive families, quite honestly, avoid searching because they are afraid that their child's perception of them as parents will change if the birth family is found. They have an idea that their child's life began on "Gotcha day", and that the love they give their child will suffice, will fill the need their child may have for birth family. But the reality is that the need to know birth family develops outside of family -- it resides inside a child. A parent can't predict if a child will want to have this knowledge down the road. Not searching out of fear is unfair to one's child.
So, what is the best approach? Quite simply -- search and archive. Get as much information as you can, put it away, and wait for your child to ask for it. This reduces the risk of waiting, while also allowing and empowering your child with the ability to control what s/he knows. It leaves the ball firmly in the adoptive child's court to decide when they seek the information, but eliminates the risk that when they do want it, that time will have erased all trails and doomed their search to failure.
If a birth family is located, in almost all circumstances communication is controlled by the adoptive family. We have located scores of birth families, and the reaction of the adoptive families have ranged from flying to China to meet them on one end, to sending anonymous letters periodically to the birth family with the understanding that more indepth communication will have to wait until the child seek it on the other. It is the right of the adoptive parents to control and manage that communication. But to avoid seeking, to avoid communicating and establishing at least initial contact with the birth family of your child prevents the birth family from knowing their child is safe and healthy, and increases the very real risk that one day one or both of them will no longer be available when your child desires contact.
Aside from actively searching in China, another essential step is the submission of a child's DNA to 23andMe. As more and more adoptive families submit their children's DNA to this data base, important clues as to your child's origins will become available. Additionally, as birth parent DNA is entered into the data base, matches will be made that will make a search in China unnecessary. One of the first things all adoptive families should take advantage of is the collective information available through DNA.
As adoptive parents, all of us have one goal in mind -- to provide the resources and knowledge necessary to allow our children to grow up happy and whole. For some adoptees, the experiences and love of their adoptive parents and family will be enough to accomplish that. For many more, at some point questions and needs will arise that we as parents won't be able to answer or satisfy. Our job is to prepare for those questions, to do everything we can to have knowledge to provide to complete our children. The "wait until my child asks for it" mentality, especially as it relates to the situation in China, is ultimately a risky gambit that very likely will result in unhappiness for our children.
Monday, November 09, 2015
Changing Attitudes: My Experiences Living Under the One-Child Policy
"One Couple Raising One Girl is Good for the Country,, People and the Family." (Gaoming, Guangdong) |
Changing Attitudes: My Experiences Living Under the One-Child Policy
by Lan Stuy
Last Sunday, we had a family gathering at
my mother-in-law’s house. During our family time there, one of my
sisters-in-law suggested that everyone in our family prepare a little
story to share, one of our best memories from our childhoods, in the coming family
Christmas party this year.
I know that everyone in my family
here in the United States
has a lot of pictures and videos to remind them of their wonderful
childhoods. I don’t have a single picture or any video to remind me of my
childhood at all. But the memories that I have from my childhood
have always stayed in the deepest part of my heart.
One of the best memories that I have
was when my older sister gave me a ride on her bicycle through the
towns and villages around my home. We went to another village to visit my
grandmother, and I spent every summer vacation there. Most of my time
there was spent trying to catch the fish and play in the water in the river
beside the village, or looking after the water buffalo on the hill for my uncle
with other friends my age. I loved my grandmother, who always tried
to make delicious food for me.
I remember my grandmother was always very
thin and worked so hard to take care the family. She lived with my oldest uncle
and took care of my cousin from the day he was born, because my aunt
died the same day she gave birth to him.
I learned from my mother that my
grandmother was 16 when she married my grandfather, and she was 17 when
she had her first child. She had ten biological children with my grandfather
over her entire marriage. In that time, even though life was very
difficult, the traditional idea was that more children bring more
happiness.
My grandmother unfortunately watched
five of her children die in her arms at different times, because life was
terribly difficult and my grand-parents did not have money to pay to go visit
the hospital when one of my aunts or uncles got sick. My mother was the oldest
in the family, and she is very appreciative that she survived. My
grandmother always adored me and my sisters every time we visited during the
Summer.
When my mother was 24, she met my
dad through an "Introducer" and decided to get married to my father
about four months later. She believed my father was a good person that she
could trust. Another reason was she did not want to marry any men in her local
area. That year my dad was 32.
My dad was alone for years already because both his
parents had passed away when he was about 24. He had been fighting for his
own life for many years until he married my mother and started a new
family together.
In 1962, my oldest sister was born. It lit up my mother’s
life when she arrived, because most of the time my mom stayed at home in
the village by herself while my dad worked in the city to build with
his construction team. My mom had to take care of my oldest sister by herself
most of the time, and she was also very busy taking care of the farm.
Then, after a miscarriage that my parents believed was a
boy, my mom got pregnant again! In 1966, my second older sister was born. But
she didn’t bring much surprise to the family because my dad wanted a boy
and she was another girl!
In 1969, my mom gave birth to her third surviving child in our
local hospital, and it was a girl again. My third older sister was
the healthiest baby ever in the family, since she weighed 7 pounds
and had beautiful long, thick black hair already when she was born. “No
one believed she was a newborn baby,” my mom always says when telling us
the story about when we were born, “She looked like a two month old
baby.”
In 1970, at midnight in late Summer, my mother walked herself
in the darkness to the local hospital. Around 4:00 or 5:00 am, as soon as
I was born, my mother packed me up and held me tight in her arms, and walked in
the rain and darkness in pain back to our home because she was very concerned
about the three young girls that she had left. I weighed
only 2.2kg, a little tiny hungry kitty wrapped in her arms, and I was
the lightest baby in my family's history.
Because my father still hoped to have a son, in 1972 my mom gave
birth to her fifth surviving child. It was a girl again! That was my younger
sister Mei.
In 1974, my mom gave birth to her last child, a girl also, but
unfortunately our youngest little sister didn’t make it and died from sickness in
my mom’s arms when she was about one and half years old.
That’s the story about how the “Five Golden Flowers” were created
in our family.
"Having Family Planning is a basic policy of our country." (Fenghuang, Chongqing) |
In the late 1970’s, China started a family planning program to try
to control the population of China
. In 1980, China
started the One Child Policy. In 1984, one of the new rules of the OCP stated
that rural families were allowed to have a second child after four years
if the first child was a girl. It was during this time that my three
older sisters got married and started their new families. It was a
"hot time" for the "one child" police. My oldest
sister married her first love, a boy from our village who went to
High School together with her. They had their first boy, my nephew, in
1985. Four years later, my oldest sister had her second and last child in 1989,
and it was also a boy. In China ,
people always talk about the OCP was only aimed at the poor families who have
no money, no power, and no relationship with the people that worked in the
government. For example, in January 2014, there was news about famous movie
director Yimou Zhang finally have received a fine from the Wuxi City Family
Planning Bureau of 7,487,854 yuan because he had two boys and one girl in his
second married. It is and was very common that people who either have money or
power could always escape the OCP rule to have extra children if they wanted.
So, while my oldest sister and her husband had no money and no power, they both
were from the same area and had relationships with those who worked at the Family
Planning Office. Thus, even though their first child was as boy, they were able
to have a second child four years later after their first boy was born.
Both my second and third older
sisters got married about the same time, and both of their husbands were also
from our local area, but different villages. Both of these sisters delivered
their only children around the same time in the same year, and both were
girls. Both of these sisters were happy with one girl. As far
as I know, all of my older sisters have never complained about not being
able to have more children.
My sisters were part of a very large and
growing part of Chinese society. In 2000, fifty-five million couples were
recorded as being “single-child” families. This number grew to 90 million
in 2007, and 176 million families in 2015. Whereas during my mother’s
child-bearing years most families had many children, by the time her daughters
began building their families, most were satisfied with having just one child.
While horrible methods were sometimes employed to enforce the OCP, the change
in attitudes of most Chinese to how many children they want is a very
impressive accomplishment.
"Boy or Girl, It is the Same -- Both Can Carry the Family Name" (Yulin, Shaanxi). |
Last year when I went back to China ,
I attended my niece’s wedding. She was 22. Last month when I arrived
in China , I
was able to hold and play with her little boy, the first child of my
niece, and he was four months old. When I asked my niece if she was planning to
have a second child, she answered “No.” She said she already
felt pressure of “too much work” and “too expensive” to raise a child in China now.
Before I left China to come home, my other niece
was in the middle of planning her wedding in a few months with her husband
(they already got their marriage certificate last year). She told me that she
is enjoying her “life of two” (her husband and her) very much so far, and both
of them were very busy doing their family business together. As a result,
she said, she is not planning to have any children soon.
During my research
across China
over the past decade, I have often seen the Family Planning pictures posted everywhere
in the countryside, and sometimes in the towns and cities. In the advertising,
there is often talk such as “It’s great to just have one child”, or “Boy
and girl are the same,” “The Family Planning is a basic state policy of our
country,” or “Delayed marriage and delay child bearing, fewer and healthier
births,”…etc. I don’t know how much those words and sentences in the Family
Planning pictures have changed people’s minds to consider having just one child,
but when I look at the change that my family from the generation of my
grandparents till today, the new generation of my nieces, there is a big
difference in attitudes! I believe the old generations (my grandparents and my
parents), most of them felt like they could find their living place, their
“refuge,” in the intergenerational succession. So, children meant everything to
them for their whole life. They always tried to have as many children they could. Today, the new
generation is more considering of what kind of life they prefer to have for
themselves, and they figured out that their future living place doesn’t need to
rely on their children anymore.
When I was
reading the news and people’s blogs online about China , I have learned the number of
“DINK” (double income, no kids”) couples is going up and up every year. I know
two of my old friends, both of whom have been married over ten years. They are
still enjoying their “life of two” today.
Today I am sitting
by the computer, looking at the information of the thirty-two birth families
that we located, and that have turned in their DNA samples. Of these thirty-two
birth families, one of the children given up was the first child in the family,
and this girl had a special need. One of the girls was the third child. As far
as I know, all the rest were second children in their families. In every case that I know of, the reason was
to try and get a boy. The recent changes
in the one-child policy would not have changed the outcome for any of these
families, because they already had an older daughter in the family, and were
already allowed to try for a second child (with the hope that the second child
would be a boy). It seems these birth families are happy with how many children
they have now, but regretted what they did in the old days, “giving away” their
daughter for another chance to have a boy that the family needed.
On October
29, 2015, there was much excitement for the Chinese when the news came out
about that the one-child policy had changed to allow families to have two
children. Below were some common comments posted by people inside China
about the news:
“Many of my
friends, don’t even want to get marry, so forget about having children. Even if
they have an opportunity to have two children now, most of them don’t even want
to have children at all. This generation are all spoiled children of the family,
and there is no hope from them. ‘There is no need to live so tired,’ that’s
what they said.”
“Poor us! We
have no chance to pregnant again if we kept waiting. The Family Planning is
aimed at people like us who have no money. The people that have money can have
as many children as they wanted, hopefully free-for-all will start earlier,
even just started on the ages.”
“In a few
years, even if the government pays money for the family/people to have more
children, the family’ people won’t even want to do it! We will see!”
“Even allow
to have two children now, but there aren’t many family/ people want more
children, because you can give birth but not be able to afford to raise more
children now.”
…. Etc.
Winter just
came, Spring won’t be far behind. How much hope that the two children policy
will bring or change the families in China in the coming new year? We
will have to look towards the future and see.
Monday, August 31, 2015
Duplicate Finding Ad Publications
This week we were able to provide an adoptive family with the finding ad for their daughter, adopted at 10 years old. The orphanage provided the family a xerox copy of her finding ad, published in 2010, which provided the earliest photo they had of their daughter, a smiling 5-year old. What the family didn't know was that the orphanage had published a different ad less than a month after their daughter was found. The orphanage had not provided this ad, which is typical.
There are many reasons an orphanage might publish more than one finding ad -- to correct an ad with incorrect information, to change a finding location, to add a special need discovered after the first ad was published. Regardless of the reason, these earlier ad almost always have a different -- meaning younger -- photo of a child, and are thus extremely valuable (See the photo above as a typical example. The first ad was published in 2006, a month after the girl was found. The second ad was published almost two years later).
As we work on our orphanage data books, we are discovering more and ore of these duplicate finding ads. So, if you adopted your child later than average, or if you are simply curious to know if your child as two different finding ads, contact us and we will check our huge collection of newspapers. Who knows, perhaps the photo you thought was your child's youngest isn't the earliest after all.
Email contact: BrianStuy@Research-China.Org
There are many reasons an orphanage might publish more than one finding ad -- to correct an ad with incorrect information, to change a finding location, to add a special need discovered after the first ad was published. Regardless of the reason, these earlier ad almost always have a different -- meaning younger -- photo of a child, and are thus extremely valuable (See the photo above as a typical example. The first ad was published in 2006, a month after the girl was found. The second ad was published almost two years later).
As we work on our orphanage data books, we are discovering more and ore of these duplicate finding ads. So, if you adopted your child later than average, or if you are simply curious to know if your child as two different finding ads, contact us and we will check our huge collection of newspapers. Who knows, perhaps the photo you thought was your child's youngest isn't the earliest after all.
Email contact: BrianStuy@Research-China.Org
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
The Impact of the Hunan Scandal on China's Adoption Program
This essay was published orginally on our subscription blog in 2012, but seeing some recent comments by waiting families made me think the info might still be of some relevance to interested families.
________________________
I was reading a waiting family's blog last week, and saw a discussion about how slow the CCAA is referring children. The waiting families were understandably frustrated that the wait has increased from a year to over five years since many of them have sent their adoption dossiers to China, and with only a small number of referrals taking place each month, many asked the question "Why?"
Answers have been thrown out to explain the increased wait time, running the gamut from the 2008 Olympics to a decrease in abandonments due to increased economic affluence and access to abortion. Some uninformed families believe that children are still coming into the orphanages, but that the CCAA has implimented a quota system that keeps them there, hidden from the world, and unadoptable. All of these ideas can be tested, drawing on evidence from China's orphanages. By focusing on the data from China's main providers of internationally adopted children, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces, we can test each hypothesis to see if it stands up to scrutiny, and ultimately determine what exactly caused China's program to so radically change over the past ten years.
First, let's begin answering the question of why by answering an even more basic question: "When did the wait time begin increasing?" After we have determined that fact, we can go on to address why.
DTC Wait Times
The first clue as to why jumps out when we look at the wait time graph above. Through most of 2003, the wait time for families ranged from eight months to fourteen months, with the overall trend being a decline in wait times. Wait times in 2004 were very flat, ranging from six to eight months, a situation that continued through 2005. It isn't until January 2006 that wait times break out to the upside, climbing to nine months, a trend reversal that saw wait times reaching 41 months in August 2009 and 72 months as I write this.
This graph alone eliminates most of the "macro" reasons for the slowdown in referrals. While there is little question that abortion and increased economic wealth have a global impact of abandonments, these changes occur slowly, over years, if not decades, not suddenly in the space of a few months as we see above. Clearly something happened in late 2005 or early 2006 to cause wait times to increase, for the graph above points to a dramatic change in the "supply-demand" equation of China's program. Either the number of children being referred declined in January, or the number of families submitting files to adopt increased sharply.
I say "supply-demand equation" because, at its most basic, that is what the wait time represents. It is very much like a line at the corner coffee shop. The shop can produce a limited amount of coffee each morning. If a Cappuccino machine breaks, the processing of customers begins to slow, and the line of waiting patrons increases, and further increases if morning commuters continue to get in line. If an employee is particularly adept one morning at making the brew, he is able to serve the shop patrons more quickly, and the line shrinks.
Imagine that the China program is represented by a single day at the coffee shop. Obviously one would expect the number of abandonments to change due to macro influences like abortions and rising incomes, but since these changes would occur over a very long period of time, they would not impact the program in the extreme short term. Such changes would be analogous to a rise in coffee prices -- they would have little impact on the number of people coming into the shop on any given day.
What we see in the graph above is akin to the complete shutdown of nearly all the coffee makers in the shop. Only one machine continues, and the line of customers has begun to increase out the door and down the block.
"But," one might ask, "how do we know if the machines have broken down, rather than a bunch of new patrons are getting in the line? Perhaps the 'supply' has remained constant, and the number of customers has simply increased."
A view of total adoptions from China shows that the number of adoptions being completed peaked in 2005, and fell by more than half by 2008.
Clearly this is not a demand problem, since the patrons for China's adoption program are still stretched out the door and down the block. The falling adoptions can only be a result of falling supply -- China's program experienced a sharp change in how much coffee it can produce, or to make it more accurate, how many children are available for adoption. We will focus our attention on four Provinces in the discussion that follows: Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces. These are the four largest adopting Provinces, accounting for over half (57%) of all submissions in 2009.
One thing becomes quite clear when comparing the orphanage submission numbers above with the wait time graph at the start of this essay -- they are nearly perfectly inverted. In other words, when submissions were at their peak in 2003, the wait time was at its minimum. When submissions dropped in 2006, the wait times increased as a result. This, of course, ignores the increasing demand seen over these years, but clearly something happened between 2005 and 2006 to drastically change the number of children entering the orphanages.
So, what game-changing event occurred around January 2006 that would change the equation so dramatically? Possible explanations include China's signing the Hague Agreement in September 2005, and the Hunan Trafficking scandal in November 2005. No other event that I am aware of took place that would have such a substantial impact on China's orphanage program in such a short time frame.
If we zoom into 2005 and 2006, we can see if there is a specific month when things changed. This would allow us to decide if signing the Hague Agreement was the cause, or if the Hunan scandal was at fault. Fortunately, we can break down the findings for these four Provinces by month:
Here one can graphically see that all four Provinces (Guangxi = Blue; Guangdong = Pink; Hunan = Yellow; Jiangxi = Rust) saw their finding rates substantially fall beginning in December 2005, with another steep drop being seen in February 2006. By April 2006, submissions from the top four Provinces had declined from a little over 300 children per month to about 100, a decline of over 66%.
Other Provinces saw similar declines. While the Hague Agreement was ratified in September 2005, the Hunan scandal broke on November 25, 2005, with the trials taking place in February 2006. Both events were accompanied by substantial national press attention inside China. The timing of these two scandal events coincides perfectly with the decline we see in findings in our four Provinces. Thus, it seems clear that the scandal is the cause for the slow-down, and not the Olympics, signing of Hague, or any of the other macro forces proposed.
Besides the slowdown in findings, what other characteristics of China's program changed concurrent to the Hunan scandal, and after? One significant change occurred in the gender ratio of the children submitted. While overall findings declined after 2005, the decline was limited exclusively to females; male findings continued increasing unabated, as they had since 2000 (2011 is under-represented since many findings from 2011 appear in 2012 finding ads).
In February 2006, a few weeks before the trials for the Hunan scandal directors was set to begin, the CCAA met with the major orphanage directors in Tianjin. At this meeting, the focus was encouraging directors to submit as many files as they could, even special needs children that the directors may have felt were unadoptable before the scandal. As a result, submissions of SN children began to increase. Many of these children had been found many months, if not years before the scandal broke, and were residing in the orphanages, viewed as unadoptable before the February meeting. But following the meeting, directors began processing the paperwork for these children. When one graphs the average time between the finding date and the finding ad publication date from 2000 to 2011, one can easily see how the submission of these older children began to increase average "lag times" beginning in 2006.
Between 2000 and 2005, the orphanages published finding ads (the first step to an international adoption) within about 100 days of finding a child. Hunan Province was the most "efficient", publishing ads on average less than 80 days after finding, while Guangdong was the least "efficient", averaging about 150 days between finding and finding ad publication. "Efficiency" declined sharply in 2006, as orphanages began submitting children that had been found long before for adoption. Guangdong's orphanage "lag time" hit a peak of almost two years in 2009 as they responded to the CCAA's pressure to submit previously unadoptable children (This discussion makes the assumption that the finding dates listed are accurate. There is evidence that such may not be the case in all instances, and that children, particularly older children, have their finding dates artificially altered to much earlier. I have not seen evidence that this is widespread however).
Speaking in generalities, the impact of the Hunan scandal on China's program can be summarized in the following ways:
1) Prior to the scandal, the children submitted for international adoption by the orphanages was overwhelmingly female. Although male children have been increasing in total numbers since 2000 (displaying a trajectory that one would expect from changes in Chinese culture on a macro level), the extremely high number of female submissions resulted in a gender ratio in excess of 90% female through 2005.
After the scandal, the number of female submissions declined substantially across China, while the number of male submissions held steady or increased. This has resulted in the gender ratio falling, with the current ratio approaching parity. Since male findings have increased, it is the sharp drop in female submissions that is driving this dramatic change in ratios.
2) Prior to the scandal, special needs submissions were relatively rare, with over 95% of children adopted classed as "healthy". With the decline in overall findings, and the push by the CCAA to submit "warehoused" special needs children, the number of special needs adoptions has increased dramatically, both in real numbers and as a percentage of total adoptions. These increases are a result of orphanages submitting children found in prior years (increasing the average "lag time" between finding and finding ad publication), and an increase of findings overall. In other words, orphanages are "finding" more special needs children now than before 2006.
There is no doubt that the collapse in adoptions from China after 2005 is a result of the Hunan scandal. Reasons proposed by members of the adoption community, including China's artificially reducing adoptions in anticipation of the 2008 Olympics, China's signing of the Hague Agreement, or the establishment of submissions quotas, lack any evidence. Additionally, orphanage directors directly refute these notions, plainly stating that there is no limits imposed on orphanages on the number of children that can be submitted to the CCAA for adoption. Steps taken by the CCAA since 2005 also contradict this idea. The increase in adoption donation, the change in domestic adoption laws, the recent broadening of "orphan" definitions, are all intended to increase the number of children coming into orphanages for international adoption. While adoptive families hear that the Chinese government is intent on lowering the number of children adopted, all of the evidence shows the opposite -- that the CCAA is desperately trying to increase the size (and revenue) of the program.
The only question that remains to answer is why the number of children found across China fell so sharply in December 2005 and February 2006. Was it because orphanage directors realized that many of them were breaking the law, and stopped their incentive programs? Or was it because the publicity surrounding the scandal actually altered the abandonment frequency across China?
We will save this question for a future essay.
________________________
I was reading a waiting family's blog last week, and saw a discussion about how slow the CCAA is referring children. The waiting families were understandably frustrated that the wait has increased from a year to over five years since many of them have sent their adoption dossiers to China, and with only a small number of referrals taking place each month, many asked the question "Why?"
Answers have been thrown out to explain the increased wait time, running the gamut from the 2008 Olympics to a decrease in abandonments due to increased economic affluence and access to abortion. Some uninformed families believe that children are still coming into the orphanages, but that the CCAA has implimented a quota system that keeps them there, hidden from the world, and unadoptable. All of these ideas can be tested, drawing on evidence from China's orphanages. By focusing on the data from China's main providers of internationally adopted children, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces, we can test each hypothesis to see if it stands up to scrutiny, and ultimately determine what exactly caused China's program to so radically change over the past ten years.
First, let's begin answering the question of why by answering an even more basic question: "When did the wait time begin increasing?" After we have determined that fact, we can go on to address why.
DTC Wait Times
The first clue as to why jumps out when we look at the wait time graph above. Through most of 2003, the wait time for families ranged from eight months to fourteen months, with the overall trend being a decline in wait times. Wait times in 2004 were very flat, ranging from six to eight months, a situation that continued through 2005. It isn't until January 2006 that wait times break out to the upside, climbing to nine months, a trend reversal that saw wait times reaching 41 months in August 2009 and 72 months as I write this.
This graph alone eliminates most of the "macro" reasons for the slowdown in referrals. While there is little question that abortion and increased economic wealth have a global impact of abandonments, these changes occur slowly, over years, if not decades, not suddenly in the space of a few months as we see above. Clearly something happened in late 2005 or early 2006 to cause wait times to increase, for the graph above points to a dramatic change in the "supply-demand" equation of China's program. Either the number of children being referred declined in January, or the number of families submitting files to adopt increased sharply.
I say "supply-demand equation" because, at its most basic, that is what the wait time represents. It is very much like a line at the corner coffee shop. The shop can produce a limited amount of coffee each morning. If a Cappuccino machine breaks, the processing of customers begins to slow, and the line of waiting patrons increases, and further increases if morning commuters continue to get in line. If an employee is particularly adept one morning at making the brew, he is able to serve the shop patrons more quickly, and the line shrinks.
Imagine that the China program is represented by a single day at the coffee shop. Obviously one would expect the number of abandonments to change due to macro influences like abortions and rising incomes, but since these changes would occur over a very long period of time, they would not impact the program in the extreme short term. Such changes would be analogous to a rise in coffee prices -- they would have little impact on the number of people coming into the shop on any given day.
What we see in the graph above is akin to the complete shutdown of nearly all the coffee makers in the shop. Only one machine continues, and the line of customers has begun to increase out the door and down the block.
"But," one might ask, "how do we know if the machines have broken down, rather than a bunch of new patrons are getting in the line? Perhaps the 'supply' has remained constant, and the number of customers has simply increased."
A view of total adoptions from China shows that the number of adoptions being completed peaked in 2005, and fell by more than half by 2008.
Clearly this is not a demand problem, since the patrons for China's adoption program are still stretched out the door and down the block. The falling adoptions can only be a result of falling supply -- China's program experienced a sharp change in how much coffee it can produce, or to make it more accurate, how many children are available for adoption. We will focus our attention on four Provinces in the discussion that follows: Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces. These are the four largest adopting Provinces, accounting for over half (57%) of all submissions in 2009.
One thing becomes quite clear when comparing the orphanage submission numbers above with the wait time graph at the start of this essay -- they are nearly perfectly inverted. In other words, when submissions were at their peak in 2003, the wait time was at its minimum. When submissions dropped in 2006, the wait times increased as a result. This, of course, ignores the increasing demand seen over these years, but clearly something happened between 2005 and 2006 to drastically change the number of children entering the orphanages.
So, what game-changing event occurred around January 2006 that would change the equation so dramatically? Possible explanations include China's signing the Hague Agreement in September 2005, and the Hunan Trafficking scandal in November 2005. No other event that I am aware of took place that would have such a substantial impact on China's orphanage program in such a short time frame.
If we zoom into 2005 and 2006, we can see if there is a specific month when things changed. This would allow us to decide if signing the Hague Agreement was the cause, or if the Hunan scandal was at fault. Fortunately, we can break down the findings for these four Provinces by month:
Here one can graphically see that all four Provinces (Guangxi = Blue; Guangdong = Pink; Hunan = Yellow; Jiangxi = Rust) saw their finding rates substantially fall beginning in December 2005, with another steep drop being seen in February 2006. By April 2006, submissions from the top four Provinces had declined from a little over 300 children per month to about 100, a decline of over 66%.
Other Provinces saw similar declines. While the Hague Agreement was ratified in September 2005, the Hunan scandal broke on November 25, 2005, with the trials taking place in February 2006. Both events were accompanied by substantial national press attention inside China. The timing of these two scandal events coincides perfectly with the decline we see in findings in our four Provinces. Thus, it seems clear that the scandal is the cause for the slow-down, and not the Olympics, signing of Hague, or any of the other macro forces proposed.
Besides the slowdown in findings, what other characteristics of China's program changed concurrent to the Hunan scandal, and after? One significant change occurred in the gender ratio of the children submitted. While overall findings declined after 2005, the decline was limited exclusively to females; male findings continued increasing unabated, as they had since 2000 (2011 is under-represented since many findings from 2011 appear in 2012 finding ads).
In February 2006, a few weeks before the trials for the Hunan scandal directors was set to begin, the CCAA met with the major orphanage directors in Tianjin. At this meeting, the focus was encouraging directors to submit as many files as they could, even special needs children that the directors may have felt were unadoptable before the scandal. As a result, submissions of SN children began to increase. Many of these children had been found many months, if not years before the scandal broke, and were residing in the orphanages, viewed as unadoptable before the February meeting. But following the meeting, directors began processing the paperwork for these children. When one graphs the average time between the finding date and the finding ad publication date from 2000 to 2011, one can easily see how the submission of these older children began to increase average "lag times" beginning in 2006.
Between 2000 and 2005, the orphanages published finding ads (the first step to an international adoption) within about 100 days of finding a child. Hunan Province was the most "efficient", publishing ads on average less than 80 days after finding, while Guangdong was the least "efficient", averaging about 150 days between finding and finding ad publication. "Efficiency" declined sharply in 2006, as orphanages began submitting children that had been found long before for adoption. Guangdong's orphanage "lag time" hit a peak of almost two years in 2009 as they responded to the CCAA's pressure to submit previously unadoptable children (This discussion makes the assumption that the finding dates listed are accurate. There is evidence that such may not be the case in all instances, and that children, particularly older children, have their finding dates artificially altered to much earlier. I have not seen evidence that this is widespread however).
Speaking in generalities, the impact of the Hunan scandal on China's program can be summarized in the following ways:
1) Prior to the scandal, the children submitted for international adoption by the orphanages was overwhelmingly female. Although male children have been increasing in total numbers since 2000 (displaying a trajectory that one would expect from changes in Chinese culture on a macro level), the extremely high number of female submissions resulted in a gender ratio in excess of 90% female through 2005.
After the scandal, the number of female submissions declined substantially across China, while the number of male submissions held steady or increased. This has resulted in the gender ratio falling, with the current ratio approaching parity. Since male findings have increased, it is the sharp drop in female submissions that is driving this dramatic change in ratios.
2) Prior to the scandal, special needs submissions were relatively rare, with over 95% of children adopted classed as "healthy". With the decline in overall findings, and the push by the CCAA to submit "warehoused" special needs children, the number of special needs adoptions has increased dramatically, both in real numbers and as a percentage of total adoptions. These increases are a result of orphanages submitting children found in prior years (increasing the average "lag time" between finding and finding ad publication), and an increase of findings overall. In other words, orphanages are "finding" more special needs children now than before 2006.
There is no doubt that the collapse in adoptions from China after 2005 is a result of the Hunan scandal. Reasons proposed by members of the adoption community, including China's artificially reducing adoptions in anticipation of the 2008 Olympics, China's signing of the Hague Agreement, or the establishment of submissions quotas, lack any evidence. Additionally, orphanage directors directly refute these notions, plainly stating that there is no limits imposed on orphanages on the number of children that can be submitted to the CCAA for adoption. Steps taken by the CCAA since 2005 also contradict this idea. The increase in adoption donation, the change in domestic adoption laws, the recent broadening of "orphan" definitions, are all intended to increase the number of children coming into orphanages for international adoption. While adoptive families hear that the Chinese government is intent on lowering the number of children adopted, all of the evidence shows the opposite -- that the CCAA is desperately trying to increase the size (and revenue) of the program.
The only question that remains to answer is why the number of children found across China fell so sharply in December 2005 and February 2006. Was it because orphanage directors realized that many of them were breaking the law, and stopped their incentive programs? Or was it because the publicity surrounding the scandal actually altered the abandonment frequency across China?
We will save this question for a future essay.
Wednesday, April 01, 2015
Utilizing Searchers Inside China for Birth Parent Searching
One of the biggest challenges facing adoptive parents and adoptees looking to search for birth parents in China is space and language -- most families live far from their child's orphanage, and most are unable to speak Chinese. Thus, from necessity, searching requires the use of a middle person who can travel to the area and interview finders, foster families, nannies, and other potential sources of information.
Adoptive families have several well-known choices commonly named on Facebook pages and Yahoo search groups: Tiffanie Wan, Bruce Yu, and Wu Yin Xi, commonly known as Xixi. We have had limited experience with Tiffanie and Bruce, and extensive experience with Xixi. This essay will discuss each.
It is hard to overstate how important it is to select the right searcher to be involved in determining your child's history. Besides the waste of valuable financial resources, having the wrong searcher could also impact your search success, now and for a long time into the future. Before you engage any searcher, you will want to read this essay on our subscription blog.
http://research-china.org/blogs/index.htm
Adoptive families have several well-known choices commonly named on Facebook pages and Yahoo search groups: Tiffanie Wan, Bruce Yu, and Wu Yin Xi, commonly known as Xixi. We have had limited experience with Tiffanie and Bruce, and extensive experience with Xixi. This essay will discuss each.
It is hard to overstate how important it is to select the right searcher to be involved in determining your child's history. Besides the waste of valuable financial resources, having the wrong searcher could also impact your search success, now and for a long time into the future. Before you engage any searcher, you will want to read this essay on our subscription blog.
http://research-china.org/blogs/index.htm
Friday, February 20, 2015
Birth Families Located
The following list is comprised of biographical data of children for whom we have located birth families (as of February 2017). It is organized by Province, with the adopting orphanage also detailed. In a few cases the orphanage name is also known. If your child matches this information, please submit your child's DNA to 23andMe (if we have indicated that birth parental DNA is available) or contact us for more information. This list will be updated as more birth parents are located.
http://research-china.weebly.com/located-birth-families.html
http://research-china.weebly.com/located-birth-families.html