tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post5563315708651557612..comments2024-03-10T15:13:47.148-07:00Comments on Research-China.Org: A Turning Point in Wait TimesResearch-China.Orghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comBlogger64125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-3170210053593111452007-02-28T05:48:00.000-08:002007-02-28T05:48:00.000-08:00A few questions...just out of curiosity, is the CC...A few questions...just out of curiosity, is the CCAA still encouraging more orphanages to be involved in IA program? And now that the Hunan orphanage has reopened why hasn't this helped to decrease the wait time, or at least keep it from increasing? There is so much we don't know, so much that seems unclear and somewhat political. If the CCAA could see (say, mid 2005) that the number of children available was decreasing...because it certainly did not happen overnight, then why didn't they place limits on how many dossiers agencies sent them (especially at the end of 2005). It all just doesn't make sense. Also, didn't the agencies know that the number of children available was decreasing (just as they now are fully aware that there are not enough children to match the families who are waiting). Why wouldn't the agencies themselves place a limit on the number of dossiers sent to China. It seems like somewhere along the way this could have been prevented...by someone. How on Earth did a backlog of 30,000+ dossiers happen without anyone seeing that it was going to be a potential problem? It seems to me that the CCAA might of needed a reason to make drastic changes to who can adopt from China. They needed a good reason in place, that reason being a huge backlog and wait time. Without this logical reason in place they would have been faulted for wanting to make such changes. The adoption community would want an explanation as to why, and now CCAA can provide them with a good one. It is just a thought...and I apologize if it seems somewhat accusatory. I know CCAA is a wonderful organization with super people working very hard, but it is difficult to believe that they didn't know this was going to happen. They had to see it coming: less abandonments, less implementation of the one child policy, and an increase in domestic adoptions does not account for the large number of waiting families. The Hunan scandal was the only unforseeable event. The others I just mentioned happened gradually. I apologize in advance if these questions were answered clearly in your essays and blogs. I do not expect for you to reiterate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-45370415937095647322007-02-23T10:52:00.000-08:002007-02-23T10:52:00.000-08:00I think that wait-times will increase from this po...I think that wait-times will increase from this point as families do rush to beat the deadline. The age-at-referral data shows that the children are already being referred at historically low ages, so I don't see any room for improvement there. <BR/><BR/>Good luck!<BR/><BR/>BrianResearch-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-34927201332600592412007-02-23T10:46:00.000-08:002007-02-23T10:46:00.000-08:00Brian,Could you provide us with your thoughts abou...Brian,<BR/><BR/>Could you provide us with your thoughts about how the "mad rush" to turn in paperwork before the new changes take effect in May will negatively or positively affect the wait times? We have a log in date of December 05 and can't imagine how the CCAA will keep up not only with their current massive baglog of dossiers and process the mass of incoming dossiers...the ones hoping to beat the deadline. Is it possible that the CCAA will want to get through some of the current backlog before it gets worse, and sets them back even more? We understand that it is a supply and demand issue, but we also know that it is an issue of getting the children whom are ready to be referred, paper ready. That would mean a lot more time on their part. But isn't it logical?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-84620314414342110402007-02-11T07:56:00.000-08:002007-02-11T07:56:00.000-08:00Wait-times are impacted by two components -- avail...Wait-times are impacted by two components -- available children and adopting parents. It seems that the number of seeking families has more than offset the increased number of available children coming from Hunan. <BR/><BR/>BrianResearch-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-27938319931115218012007-02-11T06:47:00.000-08:002007-02-11T06:47:00.000-08:00Dear Brian, In light of the opening of the Human o...Dear Brian, <BR/><BR/>In light of the opening of the Human orphanages, would there be some kind of decrease of wait times between the Sept 05 - Nov.06 referral wait times,not including the rush that's going to take place between Dec 06 to May 07.<BR/><BR/>Also, would it be possible to update your wait times graph?<BR/><BR/>Thank you so much!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-48142386560519191872007-02-10T13:45:00.000-08:002007-02-10T13:45:00.000-08:00I expect wait times to continue to increase for a ...I expect wait times to continue to increase for a while as the pre-new requirement families rush to get their paperwork submitted. By the end of the year or early next year, it should begin coming down. <BR/><BR/>BrianResearch-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-51949954627331554982007-02-10T12:23:00.000-08:002007-02-10T12:23:00.000-08:00Dear Brian,Its now February 2007, can you give you...Dear Brian,<BR/><BR/>Its now February 2007, can you give your opinion of where you see the wait times going as of now.<BR/><BR/>Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-84329812604817750522007-01-01T19:57:00.000-08:002007-01-01T19:57:00.000-08:00Hi Brian,
I realize that the dates on these posti...Hi Brian,<br /><br />I realize that the dates on these postings stop in October so perhaps things have not been updated? Here we are at the beginning of 2007 and wait times have only increased. Our agency is telling us we can expect to wait close to 2 years, although they are of course not specific. Our LID is 11/06. We are wondering if we should route our energies elsewhere. I know you cannot answer that question, but we are afraid that the wait times will continue even with the new restrictions since it really does seem to be a supply-demand issue. Any thought? Appreciate all your info as we all trod through these waiting times with so little reliable sources of info. Yours is the most thought-provoking and fact-based site I have seen, by far.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-57744583628065031272006-10-10T10:13:00.000-07:002006-10-10T10:13:00.000-07:00Thanks, Brian, for your insights. I have made it ...Thanks, Brian, for your insights. I have made it a policy not to look on the blogs that seem to be all about rumors. You always have a solid foundation for your comments and I appreciate it even when it is not what I want to hear.<br /><br />I understand that "the wait" has been as long as it is now in prior history. How did CCAA get back to the shorter referral times?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-13790551773668302722006-10-10T04:58:00.000-07:002006-10-10T04:58:00.000-07:00Yes, to solve the wait problem China must impose r...Yes, to solve the wait problem China must impose restrictions on the number of families that can adopt.<br /><br />BrianResearch-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-69249498096012432072006-10-10T04:39:00.000-07:002006-10-10T04:39:00.000-07:00After reading all your blog with interest, I wond...After reading all your blog with interest, I wonder if we might say that the things should improve in a few months?<br /><br />I read lately that you say that there are less babies. then can they lower the waiting time anyway ?<br />do you think that shortly there might be quotas fot the dossieres like 2001 ??<br /><br />thank you for all your help, IAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-71916938081496582382006-10-09T20:24:00.000-07:002006-10-09T20:24:00.000-07:00China has a serious pollution problem, and undoubt...China has a serious pollution problem, and undoubtedly this is impacting infant mortality and health. I know of no studies on this subject (readers?), but I don't think it is a viable explanation for the slowdown, since those kinds of problems tend to creep up slowly.<br /><br />BrianResearch-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-91160306640357209452006-10-09T20:17:00.000-07:002006-10-09T20:17:00.000-07:00I think that Jane (if she really said such a thing...I think that Jane (if she really said such a thing) relies too heavily on "official" sources that are obviously trying to paint as good a picture on this situation as possible.<br /><br />The fact is, I have spoken with countless orphanages, and to-date not a single one has indicated any involvement of the CCAA in domestic adoptions. Not a single orphanage director has noted any changes in procedure over the past few years. But, nearly every director has indicated they are finding fewer babies. So, Jane and RQ and others can continue preaching that this is not a "baby supply" problem, but that point is lost on nearly every director I speak to.<br /><br />BrianResearch-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-81711157383025697582006-10-09T20:12:00.000-07:002006-10-09T20:12:00.000-07:00Brian,
Although you seem to have great connection...Brian,<br /><br />Although you seem to have great connections in China, what do you make of the rumors that the wait times are increasing because of the CCAA taking over for domestic adoptions. One website (RQ) says that Jane Liedke has said that in some of her talks. What do you think?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-45369374131386749712006-10-09T18:48:00.000-07:002006-10-09T18:48:00.000-07:00Thanks for addressing the wait.
"They obviously d...Thanks for addressing the wait.<br /><br />"They obviously didn't want to say that Hunan, or other factors, was having a detrimental impact on the wait times." <br />I wonder --could one of these unspoken "other factors" be the skyrocketing increase in birth defects due to rampant pollution? <br /><br />That's something even out of the CCAA's control, and which I can see, for many political reasons, being downplayed -- yet which would have a deeply felt & long-term effect on NSN adoptions. Would also cause a scramble as officials attempted to deal with such a serious and perhaps unforseen issue. <br /><br />(& could this be why the CCAA announced, last May, its new futire focus on IA SN adoptions?) <br /><br />I'm very curious to know if fetal and infant abnormalities linked to pollution is of concern in China, and to whom? Is it being openly addressed by CCAA workers? Here in North America, the Chinese government recently made ONE official press statement (internationally) acknowledging this issue, but even then seemed to downplay the problem and utterly ignored enviro'l pollutants as the cause. I wonder: What is being said in newspapers & informally in your province or region in China? <br /><br />So much attention in the overseas IA community has been on Hunan, but I see the wild explosion in pollution-related fetal abnormalities as having a far longer effect on the NSN adoptive community inside and outside China. <br /><br />Just wondering what you're seeing and thinking. Useful to hear another perspective. <br /><br />- a waiting parentgfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13629519363465612546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-53351440337626501402006-10-09T14:29:00.000-07:002006-10-09T14:29:00.000-07:00It is certainly a puzzling time. The CCAA has bee...It is certainly a puzzling time. The CCAA has been very tight-lipped, and for that reason I have been convinced the problem was temporary. They obviously didn't want to say that Hunan, or other factors, was having a detrimental impact on the wait times. <br /><br />The next cycle of referrals will tell us a lot. If their batch-size is around the same number as in previous months (less than a month's worth of dossiers) then I think we can look for some serious underlying issues -- too many dossiers verses the number of children. This will be a serious and long-term problem, not one that is short like Hunan referrals. <br /><br />I still believe that wait-times will come down a little in the next few months, but also that some restrictions will be announced in the next month or so.<br /><br />BrianResearch-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-20071842922040833922006-10-09T13:22:00.000-07:002006-10-09T13:22:00.000-07:00Brian, is it normal for the CCAA not to give infor...Brian, is it normal for the CCAA not to give information. It seems that no one really knows what the time frame will do and I find it hard to believe that an organization like the CCAA would not make a statement that lets people know what is happening. And I understand the whole, no paper ready babies and more dossiers. As someone with a business back ground, you can look at the number of finding ads being placed by orphanages and get an idea of how many children will be available 3 to 6 months out and then give estimates based on that. <br /><br />I know when the time frame got long several years ago they put in place a limit on dossier until they got caught up. Do you know how long the wait was increasing before they made their statement?<br /><br />Just trying to understand why we are not given better information on referral time lines.<br /><br />Thanks for you thoughts,<br />HRAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-67740930814844548222006-10-09T08:14:00.000-07:002006-10-09T08:14:00.000-07:00brian...many people in spain, holland, etc have be...brian...many people in spain, holland, etc have been sending information about 18-24 wait time....so much time, <br /><br />all the people are very sad...I am trying to believe another thing...please tell us somethingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-19834199172325182032006-10-05T15:46:00.000-07:002006-10-05T15:46:00.000-07:00Brian,
Love your blog, thanks for all your work. I...Brian,<br />Love your blog, thanks for all your work. I'm just curious, when you say CCAA has stated they want a wait timeframe of 12 mos, where does that come from? Have you read it? And, when have they last said that?<br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-24495548594704813152006-10-04T14:16:00.000-07:002006-10-04T14:16:00.000-07:00My belief that China will impose restrictions is b...My belief that China will impose restrictions is based on the CCAA's repeated statements that their intent is to hold the wait time to 12 months.Research-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-3839803273360333492006-10-04T13:01:00.000-07:002006-10-04T13:01:00.000-07:00"but China will intervene to bring the number of f..."but China will intervene to bring the number of families down befor that happens"<br /><br />brian- what exactly is this statement based on?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-17081446995594452112006-10-04T12:26:00.000-07:002006-10-04T12:26:00.000-07:00J:
I see new orphanages being added all the time....J:<br /><br />I see new orphanages being added all the time. The interesting thing is that many directors indicated to us when we surveyed them early this year that any orphanage that wants to be part of the international adoption program can be. I have not been able to verify the process for participation though.<br /><br />I haven't heard anything about the Government rejecting the CCAA's restrictions, but if they continue to run full-throttle that would create a situation where a 24 month wait becomes possible. I still think that is unlikely.<br /><br />BrianResearch-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-38268332154202302202006-10-04T09:57:00.000-07:002006-10-04T09:57:00.000-07:00Brian,
Have you heard any word on whether the CCAA...Brian,<br />Have you heard any word on whether the CCAA is working to get more orphanages approved for the IA program?<br /><br />Also, I have heard that the central government did not approve CCAA's proposed new restrictions. Have you heard anything about this? <br /><br />Could this be why the CCAA is now telling some countries that the wait may be 24 months, because their attempt to limit adoption applications failed???<br /><br />JoanneJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05631327459757752761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-89279447342412123002006-10-03T07:46:00.000-07:002006-10-03T07:46:00.000-07:00Welcome readers from Spain!! As I already posted,...Welcome readers from Spain!! As I already posted, there has been a noticible increase in Hunan referrals from last batch, but not back up to speed yet. Next month will tell us more. Also, I don't see wait-times increasing to 24 months, as I believe the CCAA will take steps to prevent that from happening.<br /><br />BrianResearch-China.Orghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09137919637778021754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15636692.post-12986362558415006952006-10-03T07:37:00.000-07:002006-10-03T07:37:00.000-07:00Hello , First of all, sorry but I am spanish and m...Hello , First of all, sorry but I am spanish and my english isnĀ“t very good, I would like to know your personal opinion about:<br /><br />1- Is really true in the last batch had been many childrens fron Hunan , How many in comparation with others months? <br />there are 20-25% from hunnan in the last batch?<br /><br />2- what is a good time for us .<br />ccaa 06-06-2006 ..18 months wait time would be ok??<br /><br />THANK YOU!! FROM SPAIN Many people here read every day your blog...mainly now becouse all people are very very sad thinking in 2 years until our referralAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com